(Click chart above to enlarge: S&P 500 Monthly chart August 1998 - February 8, 2016)
Many market observers have been calling for an impending and imminent stock market crash similar to the ones of 2000-2003 and 2007-2009, They may or may not turn out to be right. Personally, I would give that scenario - i.e. at least a 50% decline of the market from its high - only a 15% chance of happening this year.
Why? Among other things, I see strong support a bit above the 1800 level for the S&P 500 Index (which closed at 1880 this week). That support was tested successfully 4 times: in March 2014, September 2015, July 2015 and more recently in January 2016.
Many market observers have been calling for an impending and imminent stock market crash similar to the ones of 2000-2003 and 2007-2009, They may or may not turn out to be right. Personally, I would give that scenario - i.e. at least a 50% decline of the market from its high - only a 15% chance of happening this year.
Why? Among other things, I see strong support a bit above the 1800 level for the S&P 500 Index (which closed at 1880 this week). That support was tested successfully 4 times: in March 2014, September 2015, July 2015 and more recently in January 2016.
Below that, there is formidable support at around 1600 which was the high reached at the end of the two previous cyclical Bull markets in 2000 and 2007.
I would advise all traders and investors to do their own due diligence before executing any trades.
Trading can be very dangerous to your financial health.
(to be updated and enriched as more data becomes available)
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