October 30, 2012

10/26/2012, 10/29/2012 & 10/30/2012 Sessions

No trades.

Orders for 10/31/2012 session:

Buy YMZ12 @12,902 with 12,874 stop and 12,938 take-profit.
(Weekly S1 support @12,889)

Sell YMZ12 @13,098 with 13,116 stop and 13,062 take-profit.
(Weekly Pivot Point @13,102)

[ For some background and a disclaimer, please read this post and especially this post. For a more general disclaimer, read the section at the bottom of the blog. ]

October 27, 2012

A Harsh Light On Inequality

In a confluence of events (most importantly the special report on the subject in The Economist of two weeks ago), the theme of inequality has gained unprecedented traction lately.

Here's Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz's take on the subject.

Excerpts:

[...] That American inequality is at historic highs is undisputed. It’s not just that the top 1 percent takes in about a fifth of the income, and controls more than a third of the wealth. America also has become the country (among the advanced industrial countries) with the least equality of opportunity. Meanwhile, those in the middle are faring badly, in every dimension, in security, in income, and in wealth — the wealth of the typical household is back to where it was in the 1990s. While the recession has made all of this worse, even before the recession they weren’t faring well: in 2007, the income of the typical family was lower than it was at the end of the last century. [...] 
Inequality in “market incomes” — what individuals receive apart from any transfers from the government — has increased as a result of ineffective enforcement of competition laws, inadequate financial regulation, deficiency in corporate governance laws, and “corporate welfare” — huge open and hidden subsidies to our corporations that reached new heights in the Bush administration. When, for instance, competition laws are not enforced, monopolies grow, and with them the income of monopolists. Competition, by contrast, drives profits down. [...]
The Romney campaign, however, has defended inequality or brushed it aside. To do so, it has employed a handful of economic myths. Here are a few of the most important: 
(1) America is a land of opportunity. While rags-to-riches stories still grip our imagination, the fact of the matter is that the life chances of a young American are more dependent on the income and wealth of his parents than in any of the other advanced countries for which there is data. There is less upward mobility — and less downward mobility from the top — even than in Europe, and we’re not just talking about Scandinavia. 
(2) Trickle-down economics works (a k a “a rising tide lifts all boats”). This idea suggests that further enriching the wealthy will make us all better off. America’s recent economic history shows the patent falsehood of this notion. The top has done very well. But median American incomes are lower than they were a decade and a half ago. Various groups — men and those without a college education — have fared even worse. Median income of a full-time male worker, for instance, is lower than it was four decades ago. [...]

I don't need to tell you where on the political spectrum Mr. Stiglitz is situated, it should be pretty obvious. However, that does not make many (though not all) of his points any less valid and some any less indisputable. So don't count on me to give them the "fair and balanced" treatment/rebuttal.

[ Off on a philosophical tangent (here are the musings my blog's title demands!):

This might sound glib and simplistic but even a good faith attempt at being balanced and nonpartisan can, pushed to its logical extreme, lead to an absurd situation. Here's how:
if you systematically offer a rebuttal to each argument made by somebody whose politics you think you know so as to appear politically neutral, you might end up offering a false idea as a valid argument against a true idea. Many in the media and in politics do this all the time, some don't even realize it. Partly as a result, the concept of truth has been politicized through and through. Sad, but that's the world we live in. ]

October 26, 2012

10/25/2012 Session

One trade:

Bought YMZ12 @13,002, sold @13,073; P&L: + 71 points.
(Filled respectively on 10/24/2012 @3:42 pm ET and on 10/25/2012 @3:47 am ET)

[ For some background and a disclaimer, please read this post and especially this post. For a more general disclaimer, read the section at the bottom of the blog. ]

October 23, 2012

10/22/2012 - 10/24/2012 Sessions

No trades.

Standing order for 10/23/2012 - 10/25/2012 sessions:

Buy YMZ12 @13,002 with 12,969 stop and 13,073 take-profit.
(Weekly S2 support @13,008; weekly S1 support @13,130)

[ For some background and a disclaimer, please read this post and especially this post. For a more general disclaimer, read the section at the bottom of the blog. ]

October 20, 2012

10/15/2012 - 10/19/2012 Sessions

No trades.

Order for 10/22/2012 session:

Buy YMZ12 @13,002 with 12,969 stop and 13,073 take-profit.
(Weekly S2 support @13,008; daily S2 support @13,079 and weekly S1 support @13,130)

[ For some background and a disclaimer, please read this post and especially this post. For a more general disclaimer, read the section at the bottom of the blog. ]

October 17, 2012

Scoring the Recovery

Barry Ritholtz nails it in this post from his always excellent The Big Picture Blog by summarizing Reinhart and Rogoff's latest work:


Real Per Capita GDP (levels): 2007-2011 Systemic & Borderline Crises in Advanced Economies



Can't get much clearer evidence than the chart above if one wants to score the current U.S. economic recovery in good faith, i.e. without an ideological/political agenda.

The money quote from the Reinhart/Rogoff's Bloomberg's article:
We have not publicly supported or privately advised either campaign. We well appreciate that during elections, academic economists sometimes become advocates. It is entirely reasonable for a scholar, in that role, to try to argue that a candidate has a better economic program that will benefit the country in the future. But when it comes to assessing U.S. financial history, the license for advocacy becomes more limited, and we have to take issue with gross misinterpretations of the facts.

October 15, 2012

10/12/2012 Session

No trades.

Orders for 10/15/2012 session:

Buy YMZ12 @13,202 with 13,184 stop and 13,238 take-profit.
(Daily S1 support @13,203; daily Pivot Point @13,269)

Buy YMZ12 @13,002 with 12,969 stop and 13,084 take-profit.
(Weekly S2 support @13,018)

[ For some background and a disclaimer, please read this post and especially this post. For a more general disclaimer, read the section at the bottom of the blog. ]

October 10, 2012

10/08/2012 - 10/11/2012 Sessions

No trades.

Standing orders for 10/09/2012 - 10/12/2012 sessions:

Buy YMZ12 @13,202 with 13,169 stop and 13,284 take-profit.
(Weekly S2 support @13,197; weekly S1 support @13,366)

Sell YMZ12 @13,648 with 13,666 stop and 13,612 take-profit.
(Weekly R1 resistance @13,652)

[ For some background and a disclaimer, please read this post and especially this post. For a more general disclaimer, read the section at the bottom of the blog. ]

October 8, 2012

10/05/2012 Session

No trades.

Order for 10/08/2012 session:

Sell YMZ12 @13,648 with 13,666 stop and 13,612 take-profit.
(Daily R2 resistance @13,651 and weekly R1 resistance @13,652; daily R2 resistance @13,594)

[ For some background and a disclaimer, please read this post and especially this post. For a more general disclaimer, read the section at the bottom of the blog. ]

10/04/2012 Session

One trade:

Sold YMZ12 @13,498, stopped out @ 13,517; P&L: - 19 points.

[ For some background and a disclaimer, please read this post and especially this post. For a more general disclaimer, read the section at the bottom of the blog. ]

October 3, 2012

10/03/2012 Session

No trades.

Order for 10/04/2012 session:

Sell YMZ12 @13,498 with 13,516 stop and 13,462 take-profit.
(Weekly R1 resistance @13,504; weekly Pivot Point @13,399)

[ For some background and a disclaimer, please read this post and especially this post. For a more general disclaimer, read the section at the bottom of the blog. ]

10/02/2012 Session

No trades.

Order for 10/03/2012 session:

Sell YMZ12 @13,498 with 13,516 stop and 13,462 take-profit.
(Weekly R1 resistance @13,504 and daily R1 resistance @13,491; weekly Pivot Point @13,399 and daily Pivot Point @13,399)

[ For some background and a disclaimer, please read this post and especially this post. For a more general disclaimer, read the section at the bottom of the blog. ]

10/01/2012 Session

One trade:

Sold YMZ12 @13,498, stopped out @13,516; P&L: - 18 points.

[ For some background and a disclaimer, please read this post and especially this post. For a more general disclaimer, read the section at the bottom of the blog. ]