February 20, 2007

(Click to enlarge)

TLT has broken above its 50-day moving average and seems to be safely on its way to at least 90 at which point we'll have to reevaluate.

(click to enlarge)

PBW, the clean energy ETF is showing an interesting pattern having just broken (decisively?) out of its 8 months range of 16.5-18.5. It has also moved above its 200-day moving average.
If it can make it above 19, 21.50 would be the next logical resitance but we'll worry about that then.

February 8, 2007

I'm a little late to the party here but TLT did actually rebound off its 200-day Moving Average at around 87 as shown on the chart above (click to enlarge) and as envisioned in a previous blog entry. Now is it a real bounce en route to bigger better things (as in new highs above 91) or is it something else (how about the right shoulder of a Head and Shoulder formation), only time will tell. But it can't hurt to be long here with a clear exit point below 87.

February 1, 2007


As expected, USO did bottom out at 42.56 on 01/18/2007 and strongly rebounded from there. It’s up 5.50 dollars since I recommended buying it two weeks ago and it may be at or nearing the end of this particular move. In other words, taking profits at this level (a little below 49) would not be, in my humble opinion, a horribly ill-advised trade for the reasons presented below. It goes without saying that, should all the resistance levels be broken, re-entering the position is always an option. My reasons are as follows:

USO is getting close to that blue falling resistance line shown on the chart above (click to enlarge). It’s also closing in on previous support at around 50 (previous support often becomes resistance). The 14-day RSI is almost at its previous high of 60, the level it reached before USO's collapse. Finally, to add to the weight of evidence, the last few days of the rally have seen decreasing volume.